You may have heard how Google recently declared a “code red” internally after the launch and explosive success of ChatGPT. Can you blame them? Google has dominated the search business for years, and has littered search results with ads that generate billions of dollars in revenues for the company. And they’ve used their dominant position to squeeze out complimentary services such as travel options, movie times, etc.

Generative AI and chatbots change the game

Google’s search business is feeling the heat from generative AI and chatbots. As technology advances, these tools are becoming increasingly more sophisticated – and they’re giving Google a run for its money! Generative AI can create content that sounds just like it was written by humans, while chatbots can provide helpful answers to everyday questions in an instant. These advancements mean that users have more options at their fingertips when conducting searches, making it harder for Google to remain on top.

Think about it – why do a Google search and have to sift through ranked websites for an answer when you can get the answer from a chatbot that is produced through generative AI?

In the short term, accuracy is an issue, but we all know this problem will be solved quickly. Already, we’ve seen a tremendous leap in capability with the release of GPT-4, which performs much better than the already impressive GPT-3.

Innovator’s Dilemma

Google faces the ultimate innovator’s dilemma. They’ve had this AI capability, but they’ve naturally kept it under wraps, knowing that its release would pose a threat to their current business model.

Now, with the release of ChatGPT, Google doesn’t have a choice. They will soon be releasing its own AI chatbot called Bard, which is now being used by testers. The company is also starting to ad more AI capability into tools such as Gmail and Google Docs.

Microsoft sees an opportunity for Bing

Microsoft’s search business has been a dud for years, but now the company sees real opportunity with generative AI and chatbots. They released a new version of Bing which allows users to toggle between conventional search results and results generated by a chatbot, which comes with references for further investigation by the user.

Give it a try and you’ll see in real time why Google is facing a real threat. The days of relying primarily on traditional Google-style web searches are over. Of course those types of searches ill still be popular. People want to find website and tools that are useful, entertaining or informative. But sometimes they just want an answer, and the new chatbots will eat into Google’s market share and inevitably threaten revenues.

These technologies enable users to ask questions in plain language and receive accurate answers with minimal effort. This threatens Google’s market dominance as users become accustomed to more conversational means of searching for information online. Additionally, traditional web search relies on keywords, while NLP-based systems can understand the context behind a query and provide results that better match a user’s intent. This decreases the need for users to manually refine their searches by providing more relevant results faster. As these technologies become increasingly sophisticated, they could potentially reduce demand for Google’s services and erode its position as one of the world’s leading search providers.

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ChatGPT has generated an enormous amount of interest over the past several months, but now several more generative AI tools are being released (some in Beta) that will also grab attention.

Microsoft has made significant investments into generative AI with its investments in OpenAI, and it recently released it’s new Bing AI in Beta for journalists and other tech influencers.

The results have created quite a buzz.

Kevin Roose, a technology journalist for the New York Times and co-host with Casey Newton of the Hard Fork podcast, was one of the journalists invited out to Microsoft headquarters to test drive the new Bing AI. In many ways he was initially impressed as he describes in this Hard Fork episode with Newton. The Bing AI created a side-by-side display, with traditional Bing search results next to answers generated by the AI tool in a narrative format with some citations. Both Roose and Newton explained how this development could radically change the search landscape, with Google‘s domination of the business suddenly facing a serious threat. Bing AI was a potential game-changer.

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Microsoft’s massive acquisition of LinkedIn offers some interesting opportunities. Below Reid Hoffman discusses the potential synergies, including real integration with Microsoft Office.

But there’s also real potential to overreach and create real problems as well. LinkedIn has stagnated a little in recent years, and perhaps this will inject new life into the platform. It’s certainly a must-use platform for many professionals and recruiters.

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The Surface tablet is a pretty good device, but this device and the fear of tablets and mobile phones led Microsoft to create the truly terrible Windows 8 operating system. The notion that a powerful desktop needed to be reduced to tiles you touched on a screen and dumbed down programs resulted in a pathetic user experience. Solid programs like Skype disappeared, and lame mobile versions with few features showed up instead.

The staggering stupidity of this company under Steve Ballmer has led to countless misteps in the PC and operating system market. Will the ineptitude continue with Windows 10, or will they get this one right like they did with Windows 7?

Google shares got rocked today when poor earnings numbers were prematurely released. Trading had to be halted but the bloodbath would have happened regardless, though many investors were caught off guard of course.

I have no idea why Google missed earnings numbers, but I can say that they need a serious lesson in customer service. Google has treated its Adsense partners with contempt, and if Microsoft wasn’t incompetent, Google would be losing even more business.