You may have heard how Google recently declared a “code red” internally after the launch and explosive success of ChatGPT. Can you blame them? Google has dominated the search business for years, and has littered search results with ads that generate billions of dollars in revenues for the company. And they’ve used their dominant position to squeeze out complimentary services such as travel options, movie times, etc.
Generative AI and chatbots change the game
Google’s search business is feeling the heat from generative AI and chatbots. As technology advances, these tools are becoming increasingly more sophisticated – and they’re giving Google a run for its money! Generative AI can create content that sounds just like it was written by humans, while chatbots can provide helpful answers to everyday questions in an instant. These advancements mean that users have more options at their fingertips when conducting searches, making it harder for Google to remain on top.
Think about it – why do a Google search and have to sift through ranked websites for an answer when you can get the answer from a chatbot that is produced through generative AI?
In the short term, accuracy is an issue, but we all know this problem will be solved quickly. Already, we’ve seen a tremendous leap in capability with the release of GPT-4, which performs much better than the already impressive GPT-3.
Innovator’s Dilemma
Google faces the ultimate innovator’s dilemma. They’ve had this AI capability, but they’ve naturally kept it under wraps, knowing that its release would pose a threat to their current business model.
Now, with the release of ChatGPT, Google doesn’t have a choice. They will soon be releasing its own AI chatbot called Bard, which is now being used by testers. The company is also starting to ad more AI capability into tools such as Gmail and Google Docs.
Microsoft sees an opportunity for Bing
Microsoft’s search business has been a dud for years, but now the company sees real opportunity with generative AI and chatbots. They released a new version of Bing which allows users to toggle between conventional search results and results generated by a chatbot, which comes with references for further investigation by the user.
Give it a try and you’ll see in real time why Google is facing a real threat. The days of relying primarily on traditional Google-style web searches are over. Of course those types of searches ill still be popular. People want to find website and tools that are useful, entertaining or informative. But sometimes they just want an answer, and the new chatbots will eat into Google’s market share and inevitably threaten revenues.
These technologies enable users to ask questions in plain language and receive accurate answers with minimal effort. This threatens Google’s market dominance as users become accustomed to more conversational means of searching for information online. Additionally, traditional web search relies on keywords, while NLP-based systems can understand the context behind a query and provide results that better match a user’s intent. This decreases the need for users to manually refine their searches by providing more relevant results faster. As these technologies become increasingly sophisticated, they could potentially reduce demand for Google’s services and erode its position as one of the world’s leading search providers.
ChatGPT has generated an enormous amount of interest over the past several months, but now several more generative AI tools are being released (some in Beta) that will also grab attention.
Microsoft has made significant investments into generative AI with its investments in OpenAI, and it recently released it’s new Bing AI in Beta for journalists and other tech influencers.
The results have created quite a buzz.
Kevin Roose, a technology journalist for the New York Times and co-host with Casey Newton of the Hard Fork podcast, was one of the journalists invited out to Microsoft headquarters to test drive the new Bing AI. In many ways he was initially impressed as he describes in this Hard Fork episode with Newton. The Bing AI created a side-by-side display, with traditional Bing search results next to answers generated by the AI tool in a narrative format with some citations. Both Roose and Newton explained how this development could radically change the search landscape, with Google‘s domination of the business suddenly facing a serious threat. Bing AI was a potential game-changer.
In a recent episode of The Prof G Show, Scott Galloway interviews Sridhar Ramaswamy, the CEO and cofounder of Neeva, an all-new, subscription-based search engine that aims to be a competitor to Google for search.
Taking on Google seems like a gargantuan task, but Ramaswamy makes a compelling case for Neeva in this interview. It helps of course that Galloway is a fan of the concept and the company as he’s said many times on his show and also on Pivot. But Galloway is a good interviewer and he does a nice job in this episode of asking the tough questions.
Ramaswamy explains how Neeva will be an ad-free, private search engine, differentiating itself in the search market from Google which has become a slave to ad revenue, thus diluting the quality if the search results and user experience. Neeva will be subscription based, and thus obsessively focused on the needs of the consumer according to Ramaswamy. He should know as he spent fifteen and a half years at Google, and many members of his team at Neeva are Google alumni. By not being a slave to ads, Neeva can avoid tracking every consumer action, and instead just focus on data that improves the search results.
It has been reported that Neeva will charge between $5 and $10 per month for the service.
Take a listen to the podcast episode. Ramaswamy comes across as a formidable leader who can make this work.
The big tech companies have been on the receiving end of a wave of criticism from all corners, much of it relating to their size and market power. Antitrust suits are being filed and lawmakers are holding hearings.
Now we have a bi-partisan group in the House, of all places, introducing a package of bills that would beef up antitrust laws that would impact companies such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google:
Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google could be forced to overhaul their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms introduced by a bipartisan group of House lawmakers on Friday.
The package of five bills, draft versions of which were reported by CNBC and other outlets, would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest. The legislation represents the most comprehensive effort to reform century-old antitrust laws in decades.
The pressure is mounting and it will be interesting to see the details.
I have to admit that I finally saw this promo video today, but it now appears that Google Glass will cost less than $1,500, so expect to see these things everywhere. It’s a pretty fair price for what looks like a revolutionary gadget. I think Steve Jobs would be proud, and of course pissed that Apple didn’t come up with this.
